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Huawei was doing an incredible job of defying mobile industry trends when national security concerns prompted President Trump to put an end to the Chinese tech giant's business ties with American companies and even foreign enterprises using "US original technology."

當借由國家安全得借口,美國總統特朗普將這家中國科技巨頭與美國公司甚至是使用了“美國原產技術”得外國公司之間得商業聯系斬斷了的時候,華為在對抗移動手機行業趨勢上做出了不起的成就。



If Huawei ends up losing access to Google apps, services, and the Android operating system as a whole, next year could see the brand totally "wiped out of the Western European smartphone market" the company has fought so hard to conquer these past few years. As a direct consequence of that potential "wipeout", Strategy Analytics expects shipments to drop another 23 percent in 2020 compared to 2019.

如果華為最終失去了使用谷歌應用、服務和整個安卓操作系統的使用權限,那么華為將會在下一年被它過去幾年一直艱苦奮斗以求占領的西歐市場完完全全的掃地出門。(注:國外的安卓系統依賴于谷歌服務框架的支持,如果不能獲得谷歌的授權就不能在手機上預裝谷歌服務框架,結果就會導致Google Play應用商店上的部分依賴于谷歌服務框架的應用無法運行,其中包括的youtube、Google search的、Google map等國民應用將無法使用,勢必會造成國外用戶的流失)作為可能的極高的“掃地出門”的直接后果,戰略分析家們認為華為2020年的出貨量相比2019年會下跌額外的23%。

A similarly bleak Fubon Research forecast downgrades Huawei's 2019 numbers from a previous expectation of 258 million unit sales to around 200 million in a "worst-case scenario." Of course, that's still a lot of phones and it would probably be enough to keep the embattled company among the world's top three vendors. In fact, even if Huawei loses Google and Qualcomm's support for good, its mobile business could easily survive on the "sheer size of the China market." Then again, it remains unclear how Huawei could continue making smartphone processors without ARM.

富邦研究所也提出了類似的消極預測:在“最糟糕的情況下”將華為2019年的的預期出貨量從2億5千8百萬部下調到2億部。當然,這仍然是手機領域很大的出貨量,這也許也足夠保證即使是陷入困境的華為依然是世界上第三大手機制造商。(前兩名分別是韓國的三星和美國的蘋果)事實上,即使華為失去了谷歌和高通的大力支持,(谷歌掌握著安卓操作系統,高通掌握著驍龍系列的手機SoC,不過華為主要使用自己子公司海思半導體的SoC)它的移動手機業務在“規模龐大的中國市場”下依然能夠輕松的存活并發展。(中國的安卓系統和應用不依賴于谷歌服務框架)然而,在沒有ARM的幫助下華為如何繼續制造智能手機處理器仍然存疑。(現在移動設備包括手機平板等大部分使用ARM公司的移動處理器)